Round 23 Preview: Win and We're (Probably) In!

After a (mostly) up and (a little) down season it all comes down to the final clash of the 2012 home and away season. Yes, it's conceivable that, as Selwood suggests, we could win the premiership from outside the top 4, but it's an extremely difficult task. Yet if we win against the Hawks and the Pies don't win by a ridiculous margin over the Bombers then we finish 4th.

Of course, it's an extremely difficult task. The Hawks are premiership favourites, they're top of the ladder, it's at the MCG, it's on a Friday night. But I'm heartened by our previous performance at the G and our last 2 games against elite-ish teams.

They're also strengthened by the addition of Cyril Rioli. When I was thinking about the game earlier in the week, I thought his absence was huge. He's an electric, dynamic game-breaker. In the midfield or up forward, he's someone it's nigh impossible to match-up on. Now it turns out he's playing and it's a damn shame. Another damn shame are our changes, both forced and both damaging. The unfortunate Pink Panther (Rosa) lasted only 1 game after his jaw injury, whilst E-Mac (MacKenzie) has a hamstring issue. E-Mac's absence is especially problematic given the presence of car enthusiast Lance Franklin. Brown's a capable replacement, but E-Mac's our 'big matchup' defender. Still, Mr Glass is still our best defender and although it's a blow, our backline is still strong enough. Brennan for Rosa is a bit strange, position-wise, but I'm guessing it might be a sub-switch situation (or not).

Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Josh Gibson, Benjamin Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, Ryan Schoenmakers, Shaun Burgoyne
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Isaac Smith
HF: Luke Hodge, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli
F: Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo
Foll: David Hale, Brad Sewell, Liam Shiels
I/C: Clinton Young, Brendan Whitecross, Matt Suckling, Jack Gunston
Emg: Max Bailey, Xavier Ellis, Shane Savage
In: Cyril Rioli
Out: Xavier Ellis

West Coast Eagles
B: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Adam Selwood
HB: Shannon Hurn, Mitch Brown, Will Schofield
C: Daniel Kerr, Matthew Priddis, Andrew Gaff
HF: Josh Hill, Jack Darling, Patrick McGinnity
F: Andrew Embley, Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui
Foll: Dean Cox, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey
I/C: Sam Butler, Chris Masten, Andrew Strijk, Jacob Brennan
Emg: Quinten Lynch, Bradd Dalziell, Lewis Stevenson
In: Mitch Brown, Jacob Brennan
Out: Matthew Rosa (collarbone), Eric Mackenzie (Hamstring)

So it's not great news on the team front. But, to me, it seems right that we have to beat a top 4 team in the final week to make the top 4. Sure, some teams were handed top 4 with relatively easy draws, but if we make it we would've definitely earned it. Lose and we finish 5th. The Bombers won't beat the Pies, barring a miracle of unbelievable proportions (like Freo winning the premiership...ever).

And win it we can. I know NicNat and Cox won't have the easy ride they did last week against (dead) Wood, but they still should reign supreme over Hale and co. Our forward line isn't in sparkling form, but JJK should be all the better for last week's outing and the Hawks have been known to be vulnerable down back. Despite the (bloody annoying) inclusion of Rioli, the Hawks midfield isn't overwhelming in the same way as say Collingwood. They aren't that quick, they're experienced and classy and in that regard we do matchup fairly well. Saying all that, however, I believe to win here we essentially have to play our best game of the season. 

It's going to be scary but if we win it will be epic. 
...
And then I'm sure Clarkson will complain about something. Probably his height.