Warning: This is completely meaningless. I have too much time on my hands...
In an ideal world I wouldn't need to write this. We would've beaten Carlton, Richmond and Port. But it didn't happen. We're playing our best football right now and we need to because our run home is very much on the 'eek' side.
After using the ladder predictor, the top 6 seems set in this general order: Hawks/Cats/Swans/Dockers/Bombers/Pies.
That leaves Richmond, Port, Us, North (ish) and Carlton (ish) fighting for 2 spots. Brisbane could become relevant but I don't respect them enough to give them the time of day. Of course, there's a very real possibility that Essendon will be stripped of all their points pending the ASADA inquiry. So, it could very well be 5 teams fighting for 3 spots. I get the feeling, however, that the AFL (in all their greed) will do anything to keep Essendon out of real trouble.
Can we make 8th? Can we make 9th? 8th is very tough, 9th is tough. But both can be achieved.
First, let's look at the fixtures of the other teams, with the likely wins in blue.
- Richmond (9-5)- Suns- Dockers- Swans- Hawks- Lions- Blues- Giants- Bombers = 13 wins
- Port Adelaide (8-6)- Hawks- Saints- Lions- Crows- Cats- Suns- Dockers- Blues = 13 wins
- North Melbourne (6-8)- Lions- Blues- Demons- Cats- Crows- Bombers- Hawks- Pies= 9 wins
- Carlton (6-8)- Saints- Roos- Suns- Dockers- Dogs- Tigers- Bombers- Power= 9 wins
The wild-card here is what kind of performance do Essendon give if they're playing for nothing? And, of course, do teams rest players when their position on the ladder is set?
Regardless, the fact is to make 8th we probably need 13 wins. To make 9th we probably need 10-11 wins.
Although you have to take each game seriously, the Suns, Dogs and Crows are 3 games that we should win. That gives us 10 wins.
From there, we have 2 home games against the Swans and the Cats and away games against the Bombers and Pies.
It's probably fair to say we will be underdogs in every single one of those games. But to get to the (hopefully) magical number of 13 wins, we will need to win 3 of the 4. I said last week that "I think we can win every one of these games." Not feeling so confident after the Derby. We have lost every single game against a top 8 team this year. We have a well established inability to beat Sydney anywhere and Essendon and Collingwood in Melbourne. We did beat the Cats both in 2011 and 2012, but you wouldn't back us to do the same in 2013.
We really need players back soon. Even then we're going to need to play some remarkable football, which we've been unable to produce this season. If we don't then we need help. It may be from ASADA. But for now let's hope that the Saints (yeah, gross I know) can knock off the Power, North can beat Carlton and reigning premiers Freo can beat the Tigers.
This post updates. Not itself, that would be scary.
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