Round 13 Preview: The Real Test

This game is the biggest test we face this season. We have a terrible record against Collingwood in recent years and an equally as bad record at the MCG. One could argue these two records are just symptomatic of the fact that for a few seasons (2008-10) we were atrocious.

Yet, the fact remains that when we faced a similar test of our credentials last season, at around the same time, we came up way short. We have improved since then and Collingwood have arguably returned to the field a little.

But although I don't like to predict an Eagles loss (because I'm usually right) I honestly believe that the Pies are still the better team. Our rucks will do well against the ageing and increasingly ineffectual Jolly, but our midfields aren't in the same class. Mercifully Pendles is still out, but fatty Swan, Sidebottom, Beams and Thomas are all premium mids. We just don't have that talent. Furthermore, although  I would usually view our forward line as capable of scoring highly on pretty much anyone, the Pies have a very strong and experienced back 6. Their inclusions merely add to the solidity. From memory they essentially dominated our forward line in round 10 last year, with the ball coming out of the 50 as soon as it came in. Worryingly, our forward line doesn't have the depth it did last year. Finally, their forward line might not look all that intimidating on paper, yet it usually does enough with their midfielders fairly potent goalkickers themselves. The addition of Waters is important but the losses of A. Selwood and Schofield seem to nullify any net benefit.

Collingwood
B: Heritier O’Brien, Nathan Brown, Chris Tarrant
HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Martin Clarke
C: Simon Buckley, Dale Thomas, Jarryd Blair
HF: Alex Fasolo, Chris Dawes, Heath Shaw
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Tyson Goldsack
Foll: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
I/C: Alan Toovey, Sharrod Wellingham, Jamie Elliott, Marley Williams
Emg: Cameron Wood, Tom Young, Kirk Ugle
In: Heath Shaw, Alan Toovey, Ben Reid
Out: Alan Didak (Adductor), Ben Sinclair (Ankle), Tom Young

West Coast Eagles
B: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Patrick McGinnity
HB: Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Jacob Brennan
C: Andrew Gaff, Matthew Priddis, Matthew Rosa
HF: Josh Hill, Quinten Lynch, Chris Masten
F: Nic Naitanui, Jack Darling, Daniel Kerr
Foll: Dean Cox, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey
I/C: Mitch Brown, Brad Sheppard, Ashton Hams, Thomas Swift
Emg: Sam Butler, Koby Stevens, Lewis Stevenson
In: Beau Waters, Mitch Brown
Out: Adam Selwood (Illness), Will Schofield (Hamstring)

Perhaps I'm being a little negative but I just don't see us winning. If we do find a way though, it will be our biggest win since sometime in 2007. This is one of the few occasions in which I hope I'm wrong.

Go Eagles!

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In other news, Josh Kennedy isn't likely to return until at least round 20. I'm starting to get the impression he's a minor setback from not playing again this season.  Just keep Cox away from him, please. On a positive note, Embley is only a few weeks away from returning. He's a hugely useful and experienced player. Finally, the headline of this article tricked me into being excited. But I would be shocked to see Lecras back in 2012, especially if it is "high risk".